Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Will Republicans Future Plans Fudge CBO Results?

Several economic experts weighted in and seem to think so

According to the 'The New York Times' next year's Republican led congress plans to address changes to the way the Congressional Budget Office scores the outcome of proposed future legislations.

The CBO has been generating reliable figures (on pending future legislation) since it's creation nearly 45 years ago. Evens so, apparently Republicans are looking to mess with how the CBO does it's forecasting in the future.

Will This Mess Things Up?
The key change Republicans want to make is have the CBO include in their calculations a thing called "dynamic scoring". According to the CBO itself they've never included it. The reason they stated was because this would make results "highly uncertain".

It's a bit complicated to explain. In simple terms "dynamic scoring" attempts to include future human behavioral changes if some legislation were enacted. Opponents fear using this method can influence outcomes through political manipulations. 'The Center On Budget & Policy Priorities' tries to explain it this way, "tax reform’s proponents could seek to use dynamic scoring to make tax reform proposals seem less costly than they really are..". Check out the link for a much deeper analysis then I'm qualified to give.

In My Opinion
Don't mess with something that ain't broken. Conservatives have long held the view if taxes were lowered enough or others eliminated the economy would take off along with resultant revenue increases to the various levels of government. Conservative thinking is, if people and companies have more money in their pockets they will spend & hire more. In other words, a change in behavior in which "dynamic scoring" would become a factor to the predicted outcome as opposed to the methods now currently used.

This sounds an awful lot like what Washington already did with chained CPI indexing for Social Security recipients. This theoretical outcome predicted when squeezed, people will change their behavior and substitute cheaper goods and services. I can personally attest to it's falsity. Next year taking my entire raise in Social Security along with another five buck$ out of my pocket every month will allow me to make my increased medical premiums. I'm already behind before the year even begins.

Here's An Example-- Someone pays too much into the IRS one year. Let's say $2,000. However the government in it's infinite wisdom has determined their $2,000 could buy cheaper goods then they would have ordinarily spent with their refund. So instead will only refund them $1,800. Yeah, it's kinda like that!

To my way of thinking this is an attempt to make the numbers work so as to produce a desired outcome (cooking the books). Much like they hornswoggled the actual COLA figures in the Social Security program already.

My concern is, if we're moving the goal posts around how can we get a fair score? It isn't done in sports and neither should it be done in government. Imagine how many fans would come to games knowing the outcomes might be predetermined. About as many fans as Congress will have left (as if they don't have too few already).

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