Monday, December 22, 2014

Police Fatal Shooting Analysis

One Side Of The Argument
A ProPublica analysis published October 10th, 2014 shows , "Young black men are 21 times as likely as their white peers to be killed by police is drawn from reports filed for the years 2010 to 2012, the three most recent years for which FBI numbers are available... Black officers account for a little more than 10 percent of all fatal police shootings. Of those they kill, though, 78 percent were black."

Other Side Of The Argument
The Daily News reported on December 2nd, 2014, "They don't make it clear that literally only a couple hundred police departments (217 in 2012, just 1.2% of all the departments in the country) report these numbers... departments that do report are predominately urban areas, which tend to have much higher concentrations of blacks. This skews the numbers to over-represent black deaths."

Analyzing Both Sides
Although there may be a greater number, I highly doubt 21x's more blacks live in urban areas then outside of them. Seems like a weak argument. Then there's this to consider. According to the 2010 census 55% of the blacks live in the South. If that is the case there should be more police shootings overall in the South then say a state like Utah?

Yet according to NBC News a report says over the last five years "Police Shootings Are The Second Most Common Homicide in Utah" of all places. A state where only 1.3% of blacks live.

Conclusions
We can't come to any because there's not enough statistical evidence to support an argument for either side. The greater portion of police shootings in the United States involving blacks does not occur down South where over 55% of them live. One could support the density argument regarding the Northeast, but it still doesn't explain away what's occurring in places like Utah where only 1.3% of the blacks live. A state far less dense then most which still manages to have the highest number of police shootings.

It's my belief there's no reliable way we have of knowing if police shootings have increased or were largely ignored in the past by the media. I tend to think this issue is less about race or density then it is about media hyping it up. Hence amplifying something more then it actually is Further it's my belief there's more a likelihood of confrontation in urban areas then there would be in suburban areas where enforcement is sparse.

There's no doubt some white officers may have biases, yet again it doesn't explain the Utah situation. Nor when black officers are involved in shootings they end up shooting another black person 78% of the time. Further evidence this may not be a racial issue Therefore neither race nor density appears to be at the root of the problem..

Unless Congress or the FBI starts requiring police reporting these statistics we shall never know. With the ongoing controversy it's imperative they do so. The sooner the better.

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