Nuke Deal With Iran- A Perspective Analysis

Before the ink was dry critics of the Obama administration started comparing this deal to those of Neville Chamberlain with Adolph Hitler. I'm not going to go on a long discourse on that nor the treaty itself. Instead let's take a look a the larger picture in an effort to put this in perspective.

First A Brief History
The U.S. first imposed sanctions on Iran starting in 1984. Then tightened them up again in March of 1995. On June 24th, 2010 U.S. President Barack Obama signed congressional legislation which imposed the toughest penalties up until that time. Since then President Obama issued three more executive orders in September 2010, May 2011, and November 2011 imposing even further restraints.

The nuclear enrichment program was restarted in 2005 when President Ahmadinejad was elected. As a result the U.N. imposed even tougher sanctions. Two in 2006, one in March 2007, two more in 2008, one June 2010, June 2011 and renewed those June 2012.

How's Those Sanctions Working Out?
Well apparently not too well. Since then Iran has continued to thumb it's nose by continuing to advance it's nuclear enrichment program. So that leaves us with two choices. (1) Continue the sanctions (which aren't working) or (2) hope they'd come around to striking a deal. Whether they came around because of a new President, the sanctions or the secret talks the Obama administration had with them, is a matter on conjecture.

For over 28 years the sanctions have been in place and things have only gotten worse up to this point. Presidential candidate Obama promised in his campaign he'd be willing to talk with Iran. Something no other president was willing to do. As a result of that we have this agreement which is only a starting point. For that the administration is being labeled as weak, ineffectual and Neville Chamberlain like in their dealings with Iran. I'll save that argument for another time. I want to speak in regards to...

Putting Things In Perspective
Almost running in parallel is the issue of North Korea. They've been sanctioned dozens of times and also continue with their nuke program. They too have not minced words and threatened all their neighbors. Just as we have with our dealings with Iran we've also refused to speak with them and they to us. The difference is they already have missile nuclear capabilities. Ones which can reach not only South Korea, but Japan, Guam, Indonesia and possibly Hawaii to name a few.

Chart Courtesy 'The Washington Post'

The there's Pakistan. Fox News ran an opinion piece: 'Enough about Iran, Pakistan's nuclear threat should be our top concern'. "All eyes are looking to the direction of Iran, but in the meantime, Pakistan has accelerated the build-up of its nuclear weapons arsenal, and has been hard at work fitting these weapons onto short-range ballistic missiles. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal already amounts to more than a hundred bombs."

In April 2012 'Sky News' published an Analysis: Threat Of India's 'Nuclear' Missile. "As the world's biggest democracy, an India capable of using nuclear weapons across continents poses nothing like the threat that 'rogue' states such as Iran and North Korea are perceived to do. India fought a disastrous border war with China in 1962 over its still unclear frontiers with Beijing in the Himalayas. This continues to fester."

If Iran were to succeed in it's nuclear ambitions it would join nine other nations. Four of which are not covered under the 'Nuclear Proliferation Treaty". As of March 2012 the BBC estimated that there's an estimated 20,000 warheads scattered throughout the world.

IN CONCLUSION
(1) Assurances that Iran makes aren't etched in stone. Neither is the treaty which has provisions in place should Iran fail to live up to it's commitments. Even if this turns out to be a weak treaty it is better then none at all. It is a start.

(2) There are already greater threats from other nations who already have the nukes. Keep in mind Iran isn't there yet. I'm far more concerned with rogue and unstable nations like N. Korea and Pakistan who's nuclear capabilities are fully developed.

(3) The reason these unstable countries got away with this is we couldn't manage to reach an accord with them. If there's even a hope of doing that with Iran, why shouldn't we at least try to before they fully develop a nuclear arsenal?

Throughout history peace makers have been accused of being weak or incompetent. Now President Obama is being accused of the same. So what's the alternative? Imposing another 28 years of sanctions and not speak to them while they continue to move forward with their nuclear program?

Other nations have expressed reluctance in their dealings with U.S. because every 4 years we shift policies from President to President. It's just possible, as a result of Iran's election of a new President, they may now too have a shift of policy? Had we blown them off and refused to negotiate it might have been a missed opportunity and we would never find out. One other thing this has going for it. If Iran is stupid enough to renege on it's pledge dozens of other nations sitting on the fence will be inclined to distrust and end up condemning them right along with us. We'd end up with more allies then we now have going into this.

Let's not kid ourselves. Not everyone in Iran is thrilled with this deal either. Many still hold it against the U.S. for our unfettered support for the dictator Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (The Shah Of Iran) from 1965 to 1979. Yeah we botched that. Let us not botch this by not giving it a shot. I'm quite certain how Americans would act towards another country if it was done to us. A lot of patience from all sides is required to make this deal work.

So far the Iranian clerical Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is onboard with the interim pact between United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia. If the Ayatollah and many Iranians are and many in this country are not. It says more about us then it does these Iranian hardliners. I'd like to think we are better people then that. Now is the time to prove beyond words and put into action the kind of people we claim to be. My hope is neither side disappoints.