12/19/2013- Forbes-- "A close look at recent migration data shows that a significant number of younger people do indeed prefer urban life and can endure, temporarily at least, the high housing costs that go with it. However, the data also show that as they age, Americans continue, in general, to shift to suburbs, and later smaller communities, looking to buy homes and start families.
High-profile companies such as Google (itself located in very suburban Mountain View) seek outposts in places like downtown Chicago or New York, where youthful labor, often less expensive, is readily available. But most companies in technology — particularly those with an engineering focus as opposed to social media — depend heavily on older, skilled workers, most of whom live in suburbs. Much the same can be said of professional services, and finance and industrial companies."
01/24/2014- Philly.com-- "City a magnet for young people, but they do not stay, Pew report finds... The findings reflect a "promising but fragile boom," Pew cautioned, because half of these young adults said they would likely move out of the city in five to 10 years in search of better schools and stronger career prospects.
Stockton’s population is clearly rising by any measure, but as many readers have pointed out, that does not necessarily mean that people are not leaving the city. It may very well be the case that our population growth can be attributed to births, not people moving here."
COMMENTARY
Urban renewal cheerleaders who insist the next generation will flock into Allentown and elsewhere to live are deluding themselves. Cheap housing will most definitely attract those starting out. However once younger people start getting married, establish themselves with better paying jobs and start having kids they're outta here!
The reasons should be obvious. It's not just about choosing whether to raise and educate their offspring in a city or suburban environment. As today's millennials become older and start to accumulate wealth they will begin to seek out homes that offer a higher standard of living. One where they can park their cars without the hassles that come with city living. Homes located where shopping offers free parking without the aggravation of trying to drag home their purchases and kids on a bus. Schools that are considered safer for their kids. Where there isn't the constant wailing of sirens.
There are a few traits commonly found amongst urban cheerleaders. Most are young, single and fresh out of college. Another of the group rely on paychecks to promote this philosophy. Then there are those developers who stand to personally gain via the use of public dollars going into their pockets.
Let's put this in perspective. There's nothing wrong with getting urban areas dolled up and looking pretty. BUT.. as far as a fooling oneself into believing that somehow one day there will be this huge migration back into the cities is delusional. Hess's isn't come back to 9th & Hamilton. Neither are the big box national retail chain retailers either. Not ever!
This brings me to Allentown's NIZ. Yes there are new opportunities, but they are limited. Promoters have exaggerated and overblown their claims about the whole project. Indeed many people may come to work in the offices and see events at the arena. BUT.. at the end of the day (I do mean it literally) routes 309, 78, 22, Hamilton and Tilghman streets will look like the Schuylkill Expressway with cars headed back to their suburban homes.
Hypocrites? While I will not publish names and addresses of the various members of these local cheerleaders, the majority of them live neither in Allentown nor downtown. Hell some of them weren't even aware of the Lehigh Valley till they arrived here only a few years ago. Now that right there ought to tell ya something!
Oulook For The Future Families who make a decent living with kids aren't going to flock back into town. Median incomes for those renting or owning a home in Allentown won't be go up more then a few percentile Rents will outpace whatever increase in income they receive (gentrification). Home prices in Allentown will remain about the same if not less. Developers will flip some of their NIZ properties for profit. While the local city and county governments will make out, little of these changes will benefit the average Joe economically, crime wise or generally raise their standard of living much differently then it is now. Of this I am confident.
Lest you think I'm a negative nanny, the proof of my words will come by about this same time next year. Don't be surprised when I will do a SEE I TOLD YA SO piece.
OK LVCI What 10 Things Would You Planned For The City Instead?In other words none of the millennials aren't going to put up with the problems living in an urban area for any longer then they have to till these problems get resolved. I've offered 10 suggestions that actually may change things around to make city living once again attractive.
The bottom line to all of this is-- Cheap rents, a bunch of food joints and living without a car isn't going to cut it alone. Not over the long haul.
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