Millennials Moving To Urban Areas, Yeah But

12/19/2013- Forbes-- "A close look at recent migration data shows that a significant number of younger people do indeed prefer urban life and can endure, temporarily at least, the high housing costs that go with it. However, the data also show that as they age, Americans continue, in general, to shift to suburbs, and later smaller communities, looking to buy homes and start families.

High-profile companies such as Google (itself located in very suburban Mountain View) seek outposts in places like downtown Chicago or New York, where youthful labor, often less expensive, is readily available. But most companies in technology — particularly those with an engineering focus as opposed to social media — depend heavily on older, skilled workers, most of whom live in suburbs. Much the same can be said of professional services, and finance and industrial companies."

01/24/2014- Philly.com-- "City a magnet for young people, but they do not stay, Pew report finds... The findings reflect a "promising but fragile boom," Pew cautioned, because half of these young adults said they would likely move out of the city in five to 10 years in search of better schools and stronger career prospects.

05/29/2013- Stockton City Limits- "Stockton’s population is growing, but are people really moving here?

Stockton’s population is clearly rising by any measure, but as many readers have pointed out, that does not necessarily mean that people are not leaving the city. It may very well be the case that our population growth can be attributed to births, not people moving here."

COMMENTARYUrban renewal cheerleaders who insist the next generation will flock into Allentown and elsewhere to live are deluding themselves. Cheap housing will most definitely attract those starting out. However once younger people start getting married, establish themselves with better paying jobs and start having kids they're outta here!

The reasons should be obvious. It's not just about choosing whether to raise and educate their offspring in a city or suburban environment. As today's millennials become older and start to accumulate wealth they will begin to seek out homes that offer a higher standard of living. One where they can park their cars without the hassles that come with city living. Homes located where shopping offers free parking without the aggravation of trying to drag home their purchases and kids on a bus. Schools that are considered safer for their kids. Where there isn't the constant wailing of sirens.

There are a few traits commonly found amongst urban cheerleaders. Most are young, single and fresh out of college. Another of the group rely on paychecks to promote this philosophy. Then there are those developers who stand to personally gain via the use of public dollars going into their pockets.

Let's put this in perspective. There's nothing wrong with getting urban areas dolled up and looking pretty. BUT.. as far as a fooling oneself into believing that somehow one day there will be this huge migration back into the cities is delusional. Hess's isn't come back to 9th & Hamilton. Neither are the big box national retail chain retailers either. Not ever!

This brings me to Allentown's NIZ.
Yes there are new opportunities, but they are limited. Promoters have exaggerated and overblown their claims about the whole project. Indeed many people may come to work in the offices and see events at the arena. BUT.. at the end of the day (I do mean it literally) routes 309, 78, 22, Hamilton and Tilghman streets will look like the Schuylkill Expressway with cars headed back to their suburban homes.

Hypocrites?
While I will not publish names and addresses of the various members of these local cheerleaders, the majority of them live neither in Allentown nor downtown. Hell some of them weren't even aware of the Lehigh Valley till they arrived here only a few years ago. Now that right there ought to tell ya something!

Oulook For The Future
Families who make a decent living with kids aren't going to flock back into town. Median incomes for those renting or owning a home in Allentown won't be go up more then a few percentile Rents will outpace whatever increase in income they receive (gentrification). Home prices in Allentown will remain about the same if not less. Developers will flip some of their NIZ properties for profit. While the local city and county governments will make out, little of these changes will benefit the average Joe economically, crime wise or generally raise their standard of living much differently then it is now. Of this I am confident.

Lest you think I'm a negative nanny, the proof of my words will come by about this same time next year. Don't be surprised when I will do a SEE I TOLD YA SO piece.

OK LVCI What 10 Things Would You Planned For The City Instead?(1) Removed as many blighted properties as possible turning them into mini greens areas. Blighted properties increase crime and produce little if no revenue anyway.

(2) Altered zoning laws to be as strict as legally possible to stifle further single home conversions being turned into multi-rental units (which is also creating a parking nightmare). This alongside a list of landlords who are highly responsible and dependable through a type of ratings system by an outside firm. This would be similar to what is being done with hotels and motels. Why not where someone has to live day in and day out?

(3) Encourage businesses to get back to the old park & shop method. Few feel encouraged to go downtown where they have to go on the hunt for a parking meter. Free parking should be available to every legitimate shopper. This program could be offered to businesses that participate through some sort of tax incentive.

(4) One thing I wouldn't have done was relied only two or three players in hopes of reviving the city. Several small businesses that may fail are no big thing. Putting too many apples in too few baskets (if they should fail) carries far larger risks.

(5) Put more cops on foot with beat patrols. Nearly every cop gets his own cruiser. Is this necessary in the densest areas downtown? Perhaps on certain calls the one driving the cruiser could pick up the beat cop to assist him when a certain class of call comes in.

(6) I'd review what we're spending on the public pools with the thought in mind to eliminate them. Take the money we now spend and offer free or reduced passes to Dorney Park's water park where kids would much rather go instead. LANTA could provide the transportation through a shuttle bus service. This eliminates both liability, maintenance and salaries for lifeguards to the city.

(7) Encourage the Allentown School District to centralize. We maintain dozens of neighborhood elementary schools and four middle schools. Suburbia on the other hand have changed over to having K through 12 at one central location eliminating the huge costs for having dozens of small buildings. If they can do it you would think having the density we have would be less cumbersome for us then they who's students are spread out all over the place. Again think.. LANTA (who's tax dollars we are already paying for).

(8) Actual residential homeowners should receive a better tax treatment then someone who purchases a home seeking to rent it out for commercial investment. Thus encouraging homeownership over the ever increasing rentals. I'm not picking on landlords, but these units contain multiple families which increases the burden on police, parking and the Allentown schools. Thus I feel they need to pick up a larger share then a single family.

(9) Use one of the vacated elementary schools (see #7) to house the homeless, parking authority. city's health clinic, etc. that we now pay for separately.

(10) Strongly insist and persist through the local unions and in Harrisburg that we convert these horrible pension plans for the taxpayers. This can be done voluntarily through offering to convert the values of their current benefits into 401k's and outright cash they can convert to whatever a government worker deems appropriate to them. I realize state charter restricts our abilities, but it doesn't restrict an individual government worker from making a voluntarily choice on their own.

Please don't even try and tell me we can't find a work around. Take for example a government worker wishes to accept this offer. Then agrees to be rehired under new terms after cashing out. The only thing standing in their way would be those who refused the offer and are still in the union plus the union itself. Ordinarily this would lead to the required binding arbitration under Pennsylvania law. However, there's nothing saying the city can't outsource by bidding contracts for the work previously done. Why not grow a set and use that leverage?

This isn't meant as a tactic for busting unions. Rather it's to strongly persuade unions to allow workers who choose to do so be rehired under new terms they deemed acceptable to them individually. Failing the unions to still insists otherwise would be doing so at their own peril. I doubt they'd receive support from their remaining members who chose not to participate in the early pension payments their co-workers agreed to knowing the city could outsource their jobs.In other words none of the millennials aren't going to put up with the problems living in an urban area for any longer then they have to till these problems get resolved. I've offered 10 suggestions that actually may change things around to make city living once again attractive.

The bottom line to all of this is-- Cheap rents, a bunch of food joints and living without a car isn't going to cut it alone. Not over the long haul.