Before everyone gets their panties in a knot I suspect Obama and Putin in their 90 minute phone call cannot say publicly what I suspect they may have agreed to. Here's how I think how it will end up. Both the USA and Russia will agree to carve out a separation between the two. What remains is for Russia and the United States to sell it to the Ukraine people and at home like it was some sort of negotiated peace agreement between all parties.
Face it Ukraine politically and economically is in a disarray. Russia and the United States will both thump their chests like both are at each others throats. It makes for good show with their own people at home. At the same time creates fear in the Ukraine. Fear creates a more willingness for Ukrainians to agree to just about anything to avoid war. Including splitting up the country.
This wouldn't be the first time world powers divvied up other countries to both their advantages. It's been done throughout history. Unfortunately when the British separated their colonies and after WWII the major players established political rather then cultural and ethnic boundaries. It's been an unending source of trouble ever since.
Rather then go into each of those in unending detail let's keep the focus on Crimea. According to Wikipedia Crimea alone had almost more occupiers then you could count. "The Cimmerians, Bulgars, Greeks, Scythians, Goths, Huns, Khazars, the state of Kievan Rus', Byzantine Greeks, Kipchaks, Ottoman Turks, Golden Horde Tatars and the Mongols each controlled Crimea in its earlier history. In the 13th century, it was partly controlled by the Venetians and by the Genoese; they were followed by the Crimean Khanate and the Ottoman Empire in the 15th to 18th centuries, the Russian Empire in the 18th to 20th centuries, Germany during World War II and the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and later the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, within the Soviet Union during the rest of the 20th century until Crimea became part of independent Ukraine with the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991."
The Short & Long Of It
The European Union relies on 20% of it's energy from Russia. They aren't going to do anything. Russia depends on European dollars. Russia needs the U.S. and Euros dollar to prop up their weak rubles. Russia just sold off a record $11 billion of their foreign held currency to support their weak ruble on March 3, 2014.
When the dust settles on all this political BS going around it all comes down to money. Who gets what and how much. Wars cost money. None of the players wants to screw up their economies. The United States don't want it. Europeans don't want it. The Russians don't want it. The Ukraine don't want it. In this case greed is good!
Enjoy the posturing and pretense that once again world leaders in politics and those in finance have saved us from some calamity they started in the first place by dividing one set of people against another. Let's hope these clowns aren't starting something they lose control over. Barring that should happen, it's pretty much a forgone conclusion the Ukraine and Crimea will be divvied up economically between the European Union, United States and Russia into two separate entities even if the borders should remain unchanged.
(03/06/2014)
One day later it's happening just like I said in the last sentence above...
Crimea asks to join Russia, plans referendum-- "The parliament of Crimea has adopted a motion for Crimea to join Russia. It has asked the Russian president and parliament to consider this request...
Parliament also set a referendum for March 16 that will ask residents whether they want their region to "become part of Russia."
Great minds think alike. Isn't it amazing that some of us can look beyond the BS of domestic politics and grandstanding by elected officials to see the bigger picture. People need to wake up to the fact that every major power runs on capitalism, no matter what their politics preaches. It's about corporations and money.
ReplyDeleteWhen Europe is done being portioned out, the continent of Africa will be next. China is making inroads already.
WestEastonPA.com said, "China is making inroads already."
DeleteYou're right about there in Africa. And in Afghanistan too!
China's Strategy in Afghanistan--- "China National Petroleum Corporation's (CNPC) project in Afghanistan's Sar-e-Pul province has a large footprint...
China's investment in Afghanistan ranges from burgeoning trade associations to the increasing dominance of wireless sector infrastructure by telecom giants Huawei and ZTE to cooperation on heavy industry, with a China-financed steel smelter planned for Kabul...
Chinese actors in the Amu Darya basin are settling in with the confidence that at least the northern part of Afghanistan will be integrated into China's burgeoning pipeline network in post."
Kind of stupid we continue to spend our blood and trillion$ in Afghanistan while China sits on the sidelines waiting to move in. They probably view us as suckers. And they're probably right!